<?xml version="1.0" encoding="UTF-8"?><rss xmlns:dc="http://purl.org/dc/elements/1.1/" xmlns:content="http://purl.org/rss/1.0/modules/content/" xmlns:atom="http://www.w3.org/2005/Atom" version="2.0" xmlns:itunes="http://www.itunes.com/dtds/podcast-1.0.dtd" xmlns:googleplay="http://www.google.com/schemas/play-podcasts/1.0"><channel><title><![CDATA[Scaling Judgment]]></title><description><![CDATA[Notes on judgment — the thing between the data and the decision — in building organizations and allocating capital. For operators who want to think like investors, and investors who want to think like operators.]]></description><link>https://www.scalingjudgment.co</link><image><url>https://www.scalingjudgment.co/img/substack.png</url><title>Scaling Judgment</title><link>https://www.scalingjudgment.co</link></image><generator>Substack</generator><lastBuildDate>Wed, 24 Jun 2026 23:40:22 GMT</lastBuildDate><atom:link href="https://www.scalingjudgment.co/feed" rel="self" type="application/rss+xml"/><copyright><![CDATA[Alistair Toffoli]]></copyright><language><![CDATA[en]]></language><webMaster><![CDATA[scalingjudgment@substack.com]]></webMaster><itunes:owner><itunes:email><![CDATA[scalingjudgment@substack.com]]></itunes:email><itunes:name><![CDATA[Alistair Toffoli]]></itunes:name></itunes:owner><itunes:author><![CDATA[Alistair Toffoli]]></itunes:author><googleplay:owner><![CDATA[scalingjudgment@substack.com]]></googleplay:owner><googleplay:email><![CDATA[scalingjudgment@substack.com]]></googleplay:email><googleplay:author><![CDATA[Alistair Toffoli]]></googleplay:author><itunes:block><![CDATA[Yes]]></itunes:block><item><title><![CDATA[Punk, Metal, Orchestra, Jazz]]></title><description><![CDATA[Most scale-ups end up as orchestras. The good ones learn to improvise.]]></description><link>https://www.scalingjudgment.co/p/punk-metal-orchestra-jazz</link><guid isPermaLink="false">https://www.scalingjudgment.co/p/punk-metal-orchestra-jazz</guid><dc:creator><![CDATA[Alistair Toffoli]]></dc:creator><pubDate>Tue, 16 Jun 2026 17:44:04 GMT</pubDate><enclosure url="https://substackcdn.com/image/fetch/$s_!DlFB!,f_auto,q_auto:good,fl_progressive:steep/https%3A%2F%2Fsubstack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fpublic%2Fimages%2F8bafed64-ce43-4cba-afb6-cd64d681828e_1536x1024.png" length="0" type="image/jpeg"/><content:encoded><![CDATA[<div class="captioned-image-container"><figure><a class="image-link image2 is-viewable-img" target="_blank" href="https://substackcdn.com/image/fetch/$s_!DlFB!,f_auto,q_auto:good,fl_progressive:steep/https%3A%2F%2Fsubstack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fpublic%2Fimages%2F8bafed64-ce43-4cba-afb6-cd64d681828e_1536x1024.png" data-component-name="Image2ToDOM"><div class="image2-inset"><picture><source type="image/webp" srcset="https://substackcdn.com/image/fetch/$s_!DlFB!,w_424,c_limit,f_webp,q_auto:good,fl_progressive:steep/https%3A%2F%2Fsubstack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fpublic%2Fimages%2F8bafed64-ce43-4cba-afb6-cd64d681828e_1536x1024.png 424w, https://substackcdn.com/image/fetch/$s_!DlFB!,w_848,c_limit,f_webp,q_auto:good,fl_progressive:steep/https%3A%2F%2Fsubstack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fpublic%2Fimages%2F8bafed64-ce43-4cba-afb6-cd64d681828e_1536x1024.png 848w, https://substackcdn.com/image/fetch/$s_!DlFB!,w_1272,c_limit,f_webp,q_auto:good,fl_progressive:steep/https%3A%2F%2Fsubstack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fpublic%2Fimages%2F8bafed64-ce43-4cba-afb6-cd64d681828e_1536x1024.png 1272w, https://substackcdn.com/image/fetch/$s_!DlFB!,w_1456,c_limit,f_webp,q_auto:good,fl_progressive:steep/https%3A%2F%2Fsubstack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fpublic%2Fimages%2F8bafed64-ce43-4cba-afb6-cd64d681828e_1536x1024.png 1456w" sizes="100vw"><img src="https://substackcdn.com/image/fetch/$s_!DlFB!,w_1456,c_limit,f_auto,q_auto:good,fl_progressive:steep/https%3A%2F%2Fsubstack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fpublic%2Fimages%2F8bafed64-ce43-4cba-afb6-cd64d681828e_1536x1024.png" width="1456" height="971" data-attrs="{&quot;src&quot;:&quot;https://substack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com/public/images/8bafed64-ce43-4cba-afb6-cd64d681828e_1536x1024.png&quot;,&quot;srcNoWatermark&quot;:null,&quot;fullscreen&quot;:null,&quot;imageSize&quot;:null,&quot;height&quot;:971,&quot;width&quot;:1456,&quot;resizeWidth&quot;:null,&quot;bytes&quot;:3573880,&quot;alt&quot;:null,&quot;title&quot;:null,&quot;type&quot;:&quot;image/png&quot;,&quot;href&quot;:null,&quot;belowTheFold&quot;:false,&quot;topImage&quot;:true,&quot;internalRedirect&quot;:&quot;https://scalingjudgment.substack.com/i/200657322?img=https%3A%2F%2Fsubstack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fpublic%2Fimages%2F8bafed64-ce43-4cba-afb6-cd64d681828e_1536x1024.png&quot;,&quot;isProcessing&quot;:false,&quot;align&quot;:null,&quot;offset&quot;:false}" class="sizing-normal" alt="" srcset="https://substackcdn.com/image/fetch/$s_!DlFB!,w_424,c_limit,f_auto,q_auto:good,fl_progressive:steep/https%3A%2F%2Fsubstack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fpublic%2Fimages%2F8bafed64-ce43-4cba-afb6-cd64d681828e_1536x1024.png 424w, https://substackcdn.com/image/fetch/$s_!DlFB!,w_848,c_limit,f_auto,q_auto:good,fl_progressive:steep/https%3A%2F%2Fsubstack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fpublic%2Fimages%2F8bafed64-ce43-4cba-afb6-cd64d681828e_1536x1024.png 848w, https://substackcdn.com/image/fetch/$s_!DlFB!,w_1272,c_limit,f_auto,q_auto:good,fl_progressive:steep/https%3A%2F%2Fsubstack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fpublic%2Fimages%2F8bafed64-ce43-4cba-afb6-cd64d681828e_1536x1024.png 1272w, https://substackcdn.com/image/fetch/$s_!DlFB!,w_1456,c_limit,f_auto,q_auto:good,fl_progressive:steep/https%3A%2F%2Fsubstack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fpublic%2Fimages%2F8bafed64-ce43-4cba-afb6-cd64d681828e_1536x1024.png 1456w" sizes="100vw" fetchpriority="high"></picture><div class="image-link-expand"><div class="pencraft pc-display-flex pc-gap-8 pc-reset"><button tabindex="0" type="button" class="pencraft pc-reset pencraft icon-container restack-image"><svg role="img" width="20" height="20" viewBox="0 0 20 20" fill="none" stroke-width="1.5" stroke="var(--color-fg-primary)" stroke-linecap="round" stroke-linejoin="round" xmlns="http://www.w3.org/2000/svg"><g><title></title><path d="M2.53001 7.81595C3.49179 4.73911 6.43281 2.5 9.91173 2.5C13.1684 2.5 15.9537 4.46214 17.0852 7.23684L17.6179 8.67647M17.6179 8.67647L18.5002 4.26471M17.6179 8.67647L13.6473 6.91176M17.4995 12.1841C16.5378 15.2609 13.5967 17.5 10.1178 17.5C6.86118 17.5 4.07589 15.5379 2.94432 12.7632L2.41165 11.3235M2.41165 11.3235L1.5293 15.7353M2.41165 11.3235L6.38224 13.0882"></path></g></svg></button><button tabindex="0" type="button" class="pencraft pc-reset pencraft icon-container view-image"><svg xmlns="http://www.w3.org/2000/svg" width="20" height="20" viewBox="0 0 24 24" fill="none" stroke="currentColor" stroke-width="2" stroke-linecap="round" stroke-linejoin="round" class="lucide lucide-maximize2 lucide-maximize-2"><polyline points="15 3 21 3 21 9"></polyline><polyline points="9 21 3 21 3 15"></polyline><line x1="21" x2="14" y1="3" y2="10"></line><line x1="3" x2="10" y1="21" y2="14"></line></svg></button></div></div></div></a></figure></div><p>Music has always been part of my life. Unsurprisingly, the <a href="https://sequoiacap.com/series/long-strange-trip/">Long Strange Trip&#8217;s</a> episode with Bayer&#8217;s <a href="https://sequoiacap.com/podcast/bayers-bill-anderson-turning-a-168-year-old-tanker-like-a-speedboat/">Bill Anderson</a> resonated with me.</p><p>If you have one hour to spare, give it a listen. Bill Anderson is the CEO of Bayer, the 160+ years German pharmaceuticals giant. During his tenure, he re-engineered the organisation, flattening the management layers and optimising for flexibility and speed. Two things that make organisations thrive in our day and age.</p><p>Inevitably, this made me think about my own organisation. </p><p>I was lucky enough to live through the transformation of a scrappy startup into a scale-up operating in seven European markets (and counting). When I joined Holidu, we were little more than 60 people. At the first summer party I attended, in 2017, plus-ones were invited to make it feel more like a party. Today, there are about 300 people in my department alone.</p><p>In building this behemoth, we went through the typical archetypes of a startup growing fast. In the podcast, Bill Anderson talks about orchestras and jazz bands when it comes to scaling organisations.</p><p></p><p>Building on this metaphor, and thinking back to my experience, startups are punk rock. Listen to the Sex Pistols&#8217; &#8220;Anarchy in the UK&#8221; or the first couple of Blink-182 albums. I think you&#8217;ll get what I mean. Nobody knows how to play an instrument, it is pure raw energy, and attitude wins over technique. It&#8217;s Joey Ramone spitting 1-2-3 before &#8220;Blitzkrieg Bop&#8221; attacks on the Ramones&#8217; first album.</p><p>A startup is exactly the same. It&#8217;s a bunch of youngsters figuring things out as they go. It&#8217;s a lot of faking it till you make it. There are plenty of anecdotes collected over the years of customers won over by charm and passion rather than by actual features. In technical terms, it&#8217;s also called sales-led growth. In real life, this is punk rock.</p><p>Eventually, successful punk rock bands graduate from the dive bars and college parties and get to play on bigger stages. Same thing goes for startups.</p><p>When you get some traction, either as a band or as a startup, you get noticed, you get a bit more money, and a different kind of producer comes onboard to help make your second album more appealing to the masses.</p><p>It is time to scale. The equivalent of a more polished, professional producer in the startup world is the experienced folks from the outside. You start hiring senior individual contributors to counterbalance the punk rock energy of people fresh out of uni, and professional managers enter the picture.</p><p>Just like a more professional producer, the professional manager has done it before and knows how to get to the next level.</p><p>During this phase, the goal is to build a machine that can quickly hire, onboard, and get many new recruits up to speed. A new CRM is implemented, or the existing one finally gets revamped. Knowledge needs to be documented, hierarchy starts to build, and so do processes.</p><p>Any self-respecting professional manager knows that chaos doesn&#8217;t scale, and their job is to put structure around the raw punk rock energy.</p><p>The punk rock band becomes heavy metal.</p><p>Scale-ups also go through a heavy metal phase: hyper-growth. Things move as fast as a Kirk Hammett solo. New markets, new people, new products. Especially in the ZIRP era, money was cheap, AI was not in the cards, and the best way to scale was hiring people.</p><p>Organisations became orchestras without realising it. After all, isn&#8217;t it what many heavy metal bands do after a couple of albums? They get orchestras involved until they become one.</p><p>What are the characteristics of an orchestra, you might ask.</p><p>Orchestras have a <strong>strong hierarchy</strong>. They also follow a music sheet, and while there is some room for interpretation, to the untrained ear, Mozart&#8217;s 40th symphony will always sound like Mozart&#8217;s 40th symphony, no matter who the interpreter is. In organisational terms, you build <strong>many layers of people</strong> <strong>who follow a well-documented process without questioning whether it makes sense at all.</strong></p><p>The world in 2026 doesn&#8217;t want you to play orchestra music. It wants you to play jazz.</p><p>Contrary to popular belief, jazz is a genre with plenty of rules and a severe structure. In fact, it&#8217;s the most demanding structure of the four genres I mentioned. It requires musicians who are deeply skilled in their own craft and who can own the piece. They track key changes, tempo changes, and each other, without a conductor.</p><p>To many, jazz might sound like freedom. It is actually mastery.</p><p>There are three things that distinguish jazz from an orchestra.</p><p><strong>The framework is not documented but internalised.</strong> Have you ever seen a jazz band following a music sheet? No. They get on stage, they look at each other, and they start jamming. In org terms, while the orchestra follows centralised processes and team members have little room for interpretation, jazz relies on ownership and leaves a lot of freedom to the individual to do what is right in that given moment.</p><p><strong>There is no conductor, but a leader.</strong> Orchestras are top-down organisations. You have the conductor, the first violin, the second violin, and so on. Jazz has a bandleader who sets the tune, the key, and the initial tempo, but then lets people play. This is the type of leadership required today. Large top-down organisations become inevitably too slow to adapt to market needs. It is a natural consequence of growth. The central teams that were once close to the customer eventually drift away from them. Yet they still take the critical decisions.</p><p><strong>Listening replaces instructions.</strong> In an orchestra, everyone is focused on their own sheet. If you follow your sheet and keep the tempo, you can&#8217;t go wrong. Unless you are a business. Then things can go sideways. These are the typical silos that plague organisations. Eventually, people stop talking to each other. They follow their own scripts, loosely coordinated from above. In jazz, the whole thing runs because the musicians are listening to and looking at each other.</p><p>I have to admit, my organisation at moments feels more like an orchestra. But there are some things that will eventually get us closer to a jazz band.</p><p>The principle I keep coming back to is <strong>centralised framework, decentralised ownership.</strong> An organisation of 300 people needs a common framework, but, like jazz players, individuals and managers should be able to adapt it to what the local customer wants, and have the freedom to do so. In my world, each market is very different. Different seasonality, different supply mix, different ADR. A villa in Mallorca is a different beast from the same villa in Crete, two islands that share the same sea and almost nothing else. Local teams need to be able to take the decisions that win their market. At the same time, the metrics are centralised, because we all need to move in the same direction.</p><p><strong>Talent density</strong> &#8212; an idea from Netflix&#8217;s Reed Hastings and his book <em>No Rules Rules</em> &#8212; is non-negotiable for an organisation that wants to play jazz. An orchestra can afford a weak second violin because the structure of the music sheet covers for them. A jazz quartet doesn&#8217;t have that luxury. With fewer players and no sheet to refer to, every person needs to pull their own weight, read the room, and adapt when needed. That raises the bar for who belongs on the stage. In an organisation, it usually means fewer, more talented people with more scope &#8212; the same flattening I started this piece with. The harder truth is that you rarely build this density by hiring. Don&#8217;t get me wrong, hiring is important. You want output-driven people who think and act like owners. But in my experience, you can do a great job during the hiring process and yet bring the wrong people on board. This is especially painful at the manager level, where it can take time to spot the low performers. More often than not, you build density by asking an orchestra to learn to improvise, and accepting that not everyone will want to. At that point, you need to have a frank conversation about their future in the organisation.</p><p>The third shift is the hardest, because you don&#8217;t fully control it. It means breaking the most natural way large organisations work: in silos. An orchestra rehearses by section and only assembles for the performance. A jazz band only exists when everyone is in the room, reacting to each other.</p><p>That is the harder thing to build. Shared metrics are the starting point: at least everyone is reading from the same page and committing to the same objectives. But that alone won&#8217;t make the magic happen. What actually plagues siloed organisations is meetings &#8212; endless alignment between teams that should already be working together, ending with everyone frustrated because no decision was made and no problem was solved.</p><p>The way I see it, a meeting should serve one of three functions: share information with context (for example, a change that affects how people work), surface a problem blocking the company, or make the decision that solves it. To play jazz, every meeting needs an objective tied to one of those three. Small, focused, with a clear agenda and shared metrics &#8212; not large, generic gatherings held just to communicate.</p><p>Meetings, though, are just the most visible part of governance, the third big idea in moving an organisation from playing like an orchestra to playing jazz. Governance is something not many organisations do properly, because it is invisible and intangible. Nobody has it in their job description. And it is a word rarely associated with the punk energy of a startup or the speed metal of a scale-up going through its hyper-growth phase.</p><p>Looking at my organisation today, we are far from being a seasoned jazz band. But I see it as a wonderful journey, and I am genuinely excited to be part of it.</p><p>This is, in any case, the direction every organisation is being pushed in 2026, consciously or not. A world that changes this fast doesn&#8217;t reward the company that follows its sheet &#8212; or its script &#8212; most faithfully. It rewards the one whose people can read the change and adapt to it, together, without waiting to be told.</p><p>Which is the real test, and the hardest thing to read through a deck or a spreadsheet. You can probably only catch it if you&#8217;ve lived through it</p>]]></content:encoded></item><item><title><![CDATA[Long Term Thinking]]></title><description><![CDATA[If you sit by the river long enough, you will see the body of your enemy float by]]></description><link>https://www.scalingjudgment.co/p/long-term-thinking</link><guid isPermaLink="false">https://www.scalingjudgment.co/p/long-term-thinking</guid><dc:creator><![CDATA[Alistair Toffoli]]></dc:creator><pubDate>Sat, 23 May 2026 18:35:56 GMT</pubDate><enclosure url="https://substackcdn.com/image/fetch/$s_!vUdK!,f_auto,q_auto:good,fl_progressive:steep/https%3A%2F%2Fsubstack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fpublic%2Fimages%2Fdc3e119e-05aa-47f7-901d-183157df1e1f_1024x1536.heic" length="0" type="image/jpeg"/><content:encoded><![CDATA[<p>This week, Arsenal won the Premier League for the first time in 22 years. I have always sympathised for the red clubs in England, perhaps because they were all the rage when I started getting into football. </p><div class="captioned-image-container"><figure><a class="image-link image2 is-viewable-img" target="_blank" href="https://substackcdn.com/image/fetch/$s_!vUdK!,f_auto,q_auto:good,fl_progressive:steep/https%3A%2F%2Fsubstack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fpublic%2Fimages%2Fdc3e119e-05aa-47f7-901d-183157df1e1f_1024x1536.heic" data-component-name="Image2ToDOM"><div class="image2-inset"><picture><source type="image/webp" srcset="https://substackcdn.com/image/fetch/$s_!vUdK!,w_424,c_limit,f_webp,q_auto:good,fl_progressive:steep/https%3A%2F%2Fsubstack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fpublic%2Fimages%2Fdc3e119e-05aa-47f7-901d-183157df1e1f_1024x1536.heic 424w, https://substackcdn.com/image/fetch/$s_!vUdK!,w_848,c_limit,f_webp,q_auto:good,fl_progressive:steep/https%3A%2F%2Fsubstack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fpublic%2Fimages%2Fdc3e119e-05aa-47f7-901d-183157df1e1f_1024x1536.heic 848w, https://substackcdn.com/image/fetch/$s_!vUdK!,w_1272,c_limit,f_webp,q_auto:good,fl_progressive:steep/https%3A%2F%2Fsubstack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fpublic%2Fimages%2Fdc3e119e-05aa-47f7-901d-183157df1e1f_1024x1536.heic 1272w, https://substackcdn.com/image/fetch/$s_!vUdK!,w_1456,c_limit,f_webp,q_auto:good,fl_progressive:steep/https%3A%2F%2Fsubstack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fpublic%2Fimages%2Fdc3e119e-05aa-47f7-901d-183157df1e1f_1024x1536.heic 1456w" sizes="100vw"><img src="https://substackcdn.com/image/fetch/$s_!vUdK!,w_1456,c_limit,f_auto,q_auto:good,fl_progressive:steep/https%3A%2F%2Fsubstack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fpublic%2Fimages%2Fdc3e119e-05aa-47f7-901d-183157df1e1f_1024x1536.heic" width="1024" height="1536" data-attrs="{&quot;src&quot;:&quot;https://substack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com/public/images/dc3e119e-05aa-47f7-901d-183157df1e1f_1024x1536.heic&quot;,&quot;srcNoWatermark&quot;:null,&quot;fullscreen&quot;:null,&quot;imageSize&quot;:null,&quot;height&quot;:1536,&quot;width&quot;:1024,&quot;resizeWidth&quot;:null,&quot;bytes&quot;:451703,&quot;alt&quot;:null,&quot;title&quot;:null,&quot;type&quot;:&quot;image/heic&quot;,&quot;href&quot;:null,&quot;belowTheFold&quot;:false,&quot;topImage&quot;:true,&quot;internalRedirect&quot;:&quot;https://scalingjudgment.substack.com/i/198660985?img=https%3A%2F%2Fsubstack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fpublic%2Fimages%2Fdc3e119e-05aa-47f7-901d-183157df1e1f_1024x1536.heic&quot;,&quot;isProcessing&quot;:false,&quot;align&quot;:null,&quot;offset&quot;:false}" class="sizing-normal" alt="" 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class="image-link-expand"><div class="pencraft pc-display-flex pc-gap-8 pc-reset"><button tabindex="0" type="button" class="pencraft pc-reset pencraft icon-container restack-image"><svg role="img" width="20" height="20" viewBox="0 0 20 20" fill="none" stroke-width="1.5" stroke="var(--color-fg-primary)" stroke-linecap="round" stroke-linejoin="round" xmlns="http://www.w3.org/2000/svg"><g><title></title><path d="M2.53001 7.81595C3.49179 4.73911 6.43281 2.5 9.91173 2.5C13.1684 2.5 15.9537 4.46214 17.0852 7.23684L17.6179 8.67647M17.6179 8.67647L18.5002 4.26471M17.6179 8.67647L13.6473 6.91176M17.4995 12.1841C16.5378 15.2609 13.5967 17.5 10.1178 17.5C6.86118 17.5 4.07589 15.5379 2.94432 12.7632L2.41165 11.3235M2.41165 11.3235L1.5293 15.7353M2.41165 11.3235L6.38224 13.0882"></path></g></svg></button><button tabindex="0" type="button" class="pencraft pc-reset pencraft icon-container view-image"><svg xmlns="http://www.w3.org/2000/svg" width="20" height="20" viewBox="0 0 24 24" fill="none" stroke="currentColor" stroke-width="2" stroke-linecap="round" stroke-linejoin="round" class="lucide lucide-maximize2 lucide-maximize-2"><polyline points="15 3 21 3 21 9"></polyline><polyline points="9 21 3 21 3 15"></polyline><line x1="21" x2="14" y1="3" y2="10"></line><line x1="3" x2="10" y1="21" y2="14"></line></svg></button></div></div></div></a></figure></div><p></p><p>I will never forget the Champions League final between Man United and Bayern Munich, won in the last 3 minutes of the game by United. That team was epic, and it was not built in a day.</p><p>One of the best books I have ever read about leadership is Alex Ferguson&#8217;s Leading. I don&#8217;t think it is an accident that is co-written by Sequoia&#8217;s Michael Moritz. That book is all about building for the long term. </p><p>It took Sir Alex 6 years to win his first title after arriving to United in 1986. It also took 7 years for Mikel Arteta to win Arsenal the league. United started winning in 1992 and did not stop until 2013, dominating English and European football for almost two decades. It is way too early to say if Arsenal can start a cycle, but I wish them well.</p><p>In our day and age short term thinking and constant change are dominating. Yet, building something amazing takes time. It is the compounding effect. You do small incremental gains every day, constant improvements and you cannot help but becoming successful. </p><p>To do so, you need to have the right environment. Unfortunately we live in an era that rewards short term thinking, acting fast, and constant change. We are in the social media era, where it is about volume and noise. </p><p>There is a beautiful quote from Sun Tzu. If you sit by the river long enough, you will see the body of your enemy float by. </p><p>Not that you necessarily need to have an enemy, but it strikes a chord. It is a beautiful reminder that beautiful things take time.</p><p>Now back to Arsenal, the parallels with Fergie&#8217;s United are striking. </p><p>Ferguson arrived in Manchester in the end of 1986 with a club almost at the bottom of the league. His first moves were to remove players that were not functional to his long term vision and confronting the team&#8217;s culture. Reading his books, Manchester United in the late 80ies was definitely worlds apart the professional dedication a world class football team required. Players were ill-disciplined and there was more drinking than training hard. </p><p>Arteta also arrived in a dark moment for Arsenal. They were not at the bottom of the league, but far away from the top of the table. Emery&#8217;s time as a manager had ended and Freddie Ljungberg, Arsenal legend, struggled to turn the tide. The dressing room was in shambles and there were players that despite their talent were mentally checked out. Arteta started by removing such players. Mesut &#214;zil's contract was terminated, Aubameyang was stripped of the captaincy and shown the door, and half a dozen others were moved on. Arsenal finished 8th in back-to-back seasons. The rebuild looked like a disaster from the outside.</p><p>For both managers, success did not come after one season or two. Both were on the verge of being fired by year three. Ferguson in January 1990 was saved by a win in the FA Cup against Nottingham Forest. Arteta won the FA Cup in 2020, beating Manchester City 2-0 in the semifinals, and Chelsea 2-1 in the final. </p><p>What happened next was also strikingly similar: fix the unglamorous foundations. Before signing star players, both Ferguson and Arteta fixed the defensive spine and this was not done over a transfer window but over the years.</p><p>For Arsenal&#8217;s fans, the mantra became &#8220;trust the process&#8221;. </p><p>In the spirit of long term thinking and compounding, Arteta&#8217;s story at Arsenal is a story of gradual improvements. Every year the team got a little bit better, until it became a title challenger, and after some years of being close to the title but not there yet, they finally won it. </p><div class="captioned-image-container"><figure><a class="image-link image2 is-viewable-img" target="_blank" href="https://substackcdn.com/image/fetch/$s_!RSPd!,f_auto,q_auto:good,fl_progressive:steep/https%3A%2F%2Fsubstack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fpublic%2Fimages%2F84e2e7a0-a20b-47ca-ba19-c03fd60a332b_1374x638.png" data-component-name="Image2ToDOM"><div class="image2-inset"><picture><source type="image/webp" srcset="https://substackcdn.com/image/fetch/$s_!RSPd!,w_424,c_limit,f_webp,q_auto:good,fl_progressive:steep/https%3A%2F%2Fsubstack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fpublic%2Fimages%2F84e2e7a0-a20b-47ca-ba19-c03fd60a332b_1374x638.png 424w, https://substackcdn.com/image/fetch/$s_!RSPd!,w_848,c_limit,f_webp,q_auto:good,fl_progressive:steep/https%3A%2F%2Fsubstack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fpublic%2Fimages%2F84e2e7a0-a20b-47ca-ba19-c03fd60a332b_1374x638.png 848w, https://substackcdn.com/image/fetch/$s_!RSPd!,w_1272,c_limit,f_webp,q_auto:good,fl_progressive:steep/https%3A%2F%2Fsubstack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fpublic%2Fimages%2F84e2e7a0-a20b-47ca-ba19-c03fd60a332b_1374x638.png 1272w, https://substackcdn.com/image/fetch/$s_!RSPd!,w_1456,c_limit,f_webp,q_auto:good,fl_progressive:steep/https%3A%2F%2Fsubstack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fpublic%2Fimages%2F84e2e7a0-a20b-47ca-ba19-c03fd60a332b_1374x638.png 1456w" sizes="100vw"><img src="https://substackcdn.com/image/fetch/$s_!RSPd!,w_1456,c_limit,f_auto,q_auto:good,fl_progressive:steep/https%3A%2F%2Fsubstack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fpublic%2Fimages%2F84e2e7a0-a20b-47ca-ba19-c03fd60a332b_1374x638.png" width="1374" height="638" 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srcset="https://substackcdn.com/image/fetch/$s_!RSPd!,w_424,c_limit,f_auto,q_auto:good,fl_progressive:steep/https%3A%2F%2Fsubstack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fpublic%2Fimages%2F84e2e7a0-a20b-47ca-ba19-c03fd60a332b_1374x638.png 424w, https://substackcdn.com/image/fetch/$s_!RSPd!,w_848,c_limit,f_auto,q_auto:good,fl_progressive:steep/https%3A%2F%2Fsubstack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fpublic%2Fimages%2F84e2e7a0-a20b-47ca-ba19-c03fd60a332b_1374x638.png 848w, https://substackcdn.com/image/fetch/$s_!RSPd!,w_1272,c_limit,f_auto,q_auto:good,fl_progressive:steep/https%3A%2F%2Fsubstack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fpublic%2Fimages%2F84e2e7a0-a20b-47ca-ba19-c03fd60a332b_1374x638.png 1272w, https://substackcdn.com/image/fetch/$s_!RSPd!,w_1456,c_limit,f_auto,q_auto:good,fl_progressive:steep/https%3A%2F%2Fsubstack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fpublic%2Fimages%2F84e2e7a0-a20b-47ca-ba19-c03fd60a332b_1374x638.png 1456w" sizes="100vw" loading="lazy"></picture><div class="image-link-expand"><div class="pencraft pc-display-flex pc-gap-8 pc-reset"><button tabindex="0" type="button" class="pencraft pc-reset pencraft icon-container restack-image"><svg role="img" width="20" height="20" viewBox="0 0 20 20" fill="none" stroke-width="1.5" stroke="var(--color-fg-primary)" stroke-linecap="round" stroke-linejoin="round" xmlns="http://www.w3.org/2000/svg"><g><title></title><path d="M2.53001 7.81595C3.49179 4.73911 6.43281 2.5 9.91173 2.5C13.1684 2.5 15.9537 4.46214 17.0852 7.23684L17.6179 8.67647M17.6179 8.67647L18.5002 4.26471M17.6179 8.67647L13.6473 6.91176M17.4995 12.1841C16.5378 15.2609 13.5967 17.5 10.1178 17.5C6.86118 17.5 4.07589 15.5379 2.94432 12.7632L2.41165 11.3235M2.41165 11.3235L1.5293 15.7353M2.41165 11.3235L6.38224 13.0882"></path></g></svg></button><button tabindex="0" type="button" class="pencraft pc-reset pencraft icon-container view-image"><svg xmlns="http://www.w3.org/2000/svg" width="20" height="20" viewBox="0 0 24 24" fill="none" stroke="currentColor" stroke-width="2" stroke-linecap="round" stroke-linejoin="round" class="lucide lucide-maximize2 lucide-maximize-2"><polyline points="15 3 21 3 21 9"></polyline><polyline points="9 21 3 21 3 15"></polyline><line x1="21" x2="14" y1="3" y2="10"></line><line x1="3" x2="10" y1="21" y2="14"></line></svg></button></div></div></div></a></figure></div><p>The title did not come after one summer of crazy signing, although Gyokeres came last summer and cost a fortune, but it was the result of many years of right decisions. </p><p>It was beautiful to see.</p><p>There is another layer of the story that doesn&#8217;t catch the headlines. After Wenger&#8217;s Invincibles, Arsenal looked like a club dismantling. Wenger was selling the best players every summer - Fabregas, Van Persie, Nasri - and was not replacing them with equally resounding names. But something was happening behind the scenes. Arsenal was building its infrastructure, which took the shape of a brand new stadium. </p><p>The Emirates cost almost &#163;400m but doubled the match day capacity and created the revenue base that would eventually fund the success 16 years later.</p><p>Ferguson&#8217;s infrastructure building did not take the shape of a new stadium, but rather investing in rebuilding the scouting network, doubling down on the youth academy that produced the almighty boys of the 92. </p><p>The thing I like about football, aside from the game itself, is the many parallels with leadership and building successful organisations. Football managers are also dealing with insane pressure. They don't have the luxury of having a bad quarter, often it is a string of bad games and they are already grilled by fans and boards. By default, football is about short term thinking which makes it particularly fascinating to see how Ferguson and Arteta built their success over the long term.</p><p>William Thorndike&#8217;s Outsiders profiles eight CEOs who generated extraordinary long-term returns by doing something similar: ignoring short term noise and compounding quiet, unglamorous decisions over the years. Tom Murphy at Capital Cities, John Malone at TCI, Katharine Graham at the Washington Post, and of course, Warren Buffett. They all accepted to be perceived wrong in the short term but eventually they were proven right in the long run. Just like Ferguson and Arteta.</p><p>If I look at my experience in managing teams, I can relate. There is a moment, usually at the beginning, when one takes over a team, where, unless the team is already extremely successful, which is unlikely otherwise why changing manager, where you need to clean up the dressing room and work on the culture. This is something I have seen over and over. Typically, the first thing you do as a new manager is to remove either the low performer or the former superstar that lost their motivation and became a drag. </p><p>Next, there is the culture change. Often, in commercial teams it means to go back to basics and remind ourselves that selling ultimately is a lot about doing activities, consistently. Day after day, do that call, see that prospect, ask for the business. </p><p>Finding an example of infrastructure building is difficult because it is harder to see in real time. There is one thing that comes to mind. </p><p>At the beginning of 2026 we announced a compensation revamp for our commercial teams shifting towards revenue generated. </p><p>It was a big change, especially for sales reps. </p><p>I won&#8217;t lie, it was painful. We got absolutely destroyed in the first Employee NPS of the year. Results also stalled in the first couple of months, and in the moment, it felt like we did something stupid and had broken something that made the company successful in the past 7-8 years.</p><p>After the first quarter though, we noticed that the new inventory performed significantly better than what we brought live in Q1 2025. We are in the midst of Q2 and it is honestly too early to declare victory but the early signals are pointing in the right direction.</p><p>To some extent, this feels like Fergie&#8217;s or Arteta&#8217;s FA Cup victory. The culture meant as behaviours, has started to change. Nobody knows now if this will compound into something lasting. You rarely see this at this stage, only time will tell.</p><p>The reality is that long term thinking is not something that comes naturally to us humans. We are wired for dopamine. Our brains are constantly seeking the next hit. We need progress today. That&#8217;s why a lot of folks lose their shirt trading frequently, yet the best capital allocators are all long term thinkers. Evolution did not optimise humans for twenty two years without winning the Premier League. We are made for survival, which is the short term.</p><p>Building something that stands the test of time requires us fighting this instinct continuously. It requires the discipline to make unglamorous, controversial, and perhaps boring decisions. </p><p>Decisions that don&#8217;t pay off today, or even next quarter, this season or next. </p><p>It requires the ability to sit patiently, don&#8217;t panic, and resist the pressure to go back when things look bleak. I honestly felt that in mid Q1. </p><p>Last but not least, it requires the support from above. Ferguson, Arteta, the CEOs from the Outsiders all had the luxury of having someone that was patient enough to let them compound. </p><p>Behind every long term success story there is someone at the top who chose not to panic. </p><p>It is not human, if you have it in your organisation, cherish it and treat it as the asset it is.</p><p>Thanks for reading,</p>]]></content:encoded></item><item><title><![CDATA[Buying a Property in Portugal for Fun and Profit]]></title><description><![CDATA[Not Investment Advice]]></description><link>https://www.scalingjudgment.co/p/buying-a-property-in-portugal-for</link><guid isPermaLink="false">https://www.scalingjudgment.co/p/buying-a-property-in-portugal-for</guid><dc:creator><![CDATA[Alistair Toffoli]]></dc:creator><pubDate>Tue, 12 May 2026 06:47:29 GMT</pubDate><enclosure url="https://substack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com/public/images/7d41f32f-6684-4499-a1b6-7413a422d275_4032x3024.jpeg" length="0" type="image/jpeg"/><content:encoded><![CDATA[<p>Welcome to &#8220;Not Investment Advice&#8221;. This is the space where I dissect my investment ideas just for fun. </p><p>This first post of the series is about my adventures in real estate investing.</p><p>In 2018, a group of friends and I had the idea to go surfing. I was recently back from my sabbatical in South America where I picked up surfing and a few friends were genuinely up for joining me and spending a few days getting shattered by the waves. </p><p>We ended up in Peniche, taking classes from one of the most famous (and hardcore) surf camps in the area. Peniche is a beautiful place but by mid-October, our surf sessions started to feel more like approaching the D-Day in Normandy than the sun soaked t-shirt surfing I was doing in Nicaragua. The pace of the surf bootcamp did not help to convey a different image. By day 3, most of my friends were injured or lost motivation for surfing.</p><div class="captioned-image-container"><figure><a class="image-link image2 is-viewable-img" target="_blank" href="https://substackcdn.com/image/fetch/$s_!jc57!,f_auto,q_auto:good,fl_progressive:steep/https%3A%2F%2Fsubstack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fpublic%2Fimages%2F2ec81462-6c21-4bf6-857d-f5dd970a288a_4032x3024.heic" data-component-name="Image2ToDOM"><div class="image2-inset"><picture><source type="image/webp" srcset="https://substackcdn.com/image/fetch/$s_!jc57!,w_424,c_limit,f_webp,q_auto:good,fl_progressive:steep/https%3A%2F%2Fsubstack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fpublic%2Fimages%2F2ec81462-6c21-4bf6-857d-f5dd970a288a_4032x3024.heic 424w, https://substackcdn.com/image/fetch/$s_!jc57!,w_848,c_limit,f_webp,q_auto:good,fl_progressive:steep/https%3A%2F%2Fsubstack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fpublic%2Fimages%2F2ec81462-6c21-4bf6-857d-f5dd970a288a_4032x3024.heic 848w, https://substackcdn.com/image/fetch/$s_!jc57!,w_1272,c_limit,f_webp,q_auto:good,fl_progressive:steep/https%3A%2F%2Fsubstack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fpublic%2Fimages%2F2ec81462-6c21-4bf6-857d-f5dd970a288a_4032x3024.heic 1272w, https://substackcdn.com/image/fetch/$s_!jc57!,w_1456,c_limit,f_webp,q_auto:good,fl_progressive:steep/https%3A%2F%2Fsubstack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fpublic%2Fimages%2F2ec81462-6c21-4bf6-857d-f5dd970a288a_4032x3024.heic 1456w" sizes="100vw"><img src="https://substackcdn.com/image/fetch/$s_!jc57!,w_1456,c_limit,f_auto,q_auto:good,fl_progressive:steep/https%3A%2F%2Fsubstack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fpublic%2Fimages%2F2ec81462-6c21-4bf6-857d-f5dd970a288a_4032x3024.heic" width="1456" height="1092" 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srcset="https://substackcdn.com/image/fetch/$s_!jc57!,w_424,c_limit,f_auto,q_auto:good,fl_progressive:steep/https%3A%2F%2Fsubstack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fpublic%2Fimages%2F2ec81462-6c21-4bf6-857d-f5dd970a288a_4032x3024.heic 424w, https://substackcdn.com/image/fetch/$s_!jc57!,w_848,c_limit,f_auto,q_auto:good,fl_progressive:steep/https%3A%2F%2Fsubstack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fpublic%2Fimages%2F2ec81462-6c21-4bf6-857d-f5dd970a288a_4032x3024.heic 848w, https://substackcdn.com/image/fetch/$s_!jc57!,w_1272,c_limit,f_auto,q_auto:good,fl_progressive:steep/https%3A%2F%2Fsubstack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fpublic%2Fimages%2F2ec81462-6c21-4bf6-857d-f5dd970a288a_4032x3024.heic 1272w, https://substackcdn.com/image/fetch/$s_!jc57!,w_1456,c_limit,f_auto,q_auto:good,fl_progressive:steep/https%3A%2F%2Fsubstack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fpublic%2Fimages%2F2ec81462-6c21-4bf6-857d-f5dd970a288a_4032x3024.heic 1456w" sizes="100vw" fetchpriority="high"></picture><div class="image-link-expand"><div class="pencraft pc-display-flex pc-gap-8 pc-reset"><button tabindex="0" type="button" class="pencraft pc-reset pencraft icon-container restack-image"><svg role="img" width="20" height="20" viewBox="0 0 20 20" fill="none" stroke-width="1.5" stroke="var(--color-fg-primary)" stroke-linecap="round" stroke-linejoin="round" xmlns="http://www.w3.org/2000/svg"><g><title></title><path d="M2.53001 7.81595C3.49179 4.73911 6.43281 2.5 9.91173 2.5C13.1684 2.5 15.9537 4.46214 17.0852 7.23684L17.6179 8.67647M17.6179 8.67647L18.5002 4.26471M17.6179 8.67647L13.6473 6.91176M17.4995 12.1841C16.5378 15.2609 13.5967 17.5 10.1178 17.5C6.86118 17.5 4.07589 15.5379 2.94432 12.7632L2.41165 11.3235M2.41165 11.3235L1.5293 15.7353M2.41165 11.3235L6.38224 13.0882"></path></g></svg></button><button tabindex="0" type="button" class="pencraft pc-reset pencraft icon-container view-image"><svg xmlns="http://www.w3.org/2000/svg" width="20" height="20" viewBox="0 0 24 24" fill="none" stroke="currentColor" stroke-width="2" stroke-linecap="round" stroke-linejoin="round" class="lucide lucide-maximize2 lucide-maximize-2"><polyline points="15 3 21 3 21 9"></polyline><polyline points="9 21 3 21 3 15"></polyline><line x1="21" x2="14" y1="3" y2="10"></line><line x1="3" x2="10" y1="21" y2="14"></line></svg></button></div></div></div></a><figcaption class="image-caption">Peniche or Normandy?</figcaption></figure></div><p>One day, during the mid-day break, one of my friends and I were walking in the village near the breaks, and eventually the conversation of buying a place in Portugal came up. Classic tourists.</p><p>The year after, 2019, we got wiser and went to the Algarve. Sagres, the end of the world, and surfers&#8217; paradise. Sitting on the beach, after a few too many cervejas, the idea of buying a place in Portugal came back. We also started gathering intel on the market to discover that Sagres was basically owned by a few people and buying there was super expensive, despite most of the buildings looked pretty decrepit.</p><p>Something that I learned about myself is that when I have an idea or a goal, I don&#8217;t give up easily. It might take me some time, and a few detours, but eventually I get it done. 2020 was a gap year for surfing for obvious reasons but I started devouring every resource I could on real estate investing. Unfortunately, most of it was American so it has little application in the European market. Nevertheless, I joined a real estate forum and started talking to people that invested in Portugal. </p><p>After months of research, which consisted mainly of talking to random people, I landed on the conclusion that Algarve was the best place to buy. The question was where.</p><p>One of my surf mates was in Albufeira for a weekend, and serendipitously had dinner with a real estate agent who sold him the Algarve dream.  The original idea was to buy a place together, but then we ran the maths and did not make much sense. </p><p>Anyway, we had a call with her, but somehow I was not sold. Sure, Albufeira checks a lot of boxes but I don&#8217;t know, it felt too much like England in the sun. </p><p>I don&#8217;t remember how, but we got a connection with a property manager in Lagoa. Lagoa was under the radar, there were a couple of interesting pockets such as Alvor and Carvoeiro. Portimao did not strike as a place to invest despite property prices being cheaper.</p><p>Eventually, in 2021 me and this mate went surfing again but this time in Lagos. It was love at first sight and I set to buy a place there. Lagos has it all. It is the closest town to all the best surf in the Algarve. It is bigger than Sagres. It has a train (sort of) that connects it to Faro. Great bars, good nightlife that doesn&#8217;t feel like a stag do. Plus it is gorgeous. It has this old town vibes and some majestic walls. </p><p>Unconsciously, little by little, a set of criteria started to shape in my head. </p><p>So one sunny morning, I walked in in pretty much all the real estate agencies in the city centre and started going house shopping.</p><p>My girlfriend and I eventually made an offer for a place right off the main strip. It was very reasonable, but the deal did not go through. First learning, <strong>do proper due diligence on the sellers</strong>. These guys wanted to sell their place to buy a bigger one in Lisbon, if I remember well. Due to taxation, they basically had a very short window of opportunity to close this deal so it was very fragile. We made our offer, they accepted it, but never signed the papers. In the meantime, we started battling Portuguese bureaucracy. First stop, opening a bank account. We went for what seemed like a foreigners friendly bank. It was an absolute nightmare. This is another learning, <strong>find your allies</strong>. </p><p>In 2022, I came back to Lagos, determined to buy my first property. I did have quite a gruelling schedule. Surf during the day, visit apartments after at a pace of 2-3 per day, go out partying and start again the day after.</p><p>Most of the places I saw were not great. But then, I found a gem. It was through an independent realtor I contacted on idealista. Saw the place, and by my calculations, it was slightly underpriced. The sellers were a couple of foreigners that wanted to sell because they were getting old and could no longer travel to the Algarve. I offered the price they asked. In hindsight, I should have played ball and haggled on the price. But, I did not want to lose this deal. It was by far the best place my budget could buy. </p><p>What I liked about this apartment was that it was right in the city centre, very defensible because it is hard to build new supply inside the walls. Also, it has two bedrooms, two bathrooms, and two balconies, one of them is a majestic terrace overlooking the city. Something I have learned from my job in the vacation rental industry is that rentals that performs are the ones with something unique.</p><div class="captioned-image-container"><figure><a class="image-link image2 is-viewable-img" target="_blank" href="https://substackcdn.com/image/fetch/$s_!5DdG!,f_auto,q_auto:good,fl_progressive:steep/https%3A%2F%2Fsubstack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fpublic%2Fimages%2F8acd928f-0eff-471c-9a7e-c60ce7238b04_3024x4032.heic" data-component-name="Image2ToDOM"><div class="image2-inset"><picture><source type="image/webp" srcset="https://substackcdn.com/image/fetch/$s_!5DdG!,w_424,c_limit,f_webp,q_auto:good,fl_progressive:steep/https%3A%2F%2Fsubstack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fpublic%2Fimages%2F8acd928f-0eff-471c-9a7e-c60ce7238b04_3024x4032.heic 424w, https://substackcdn.com/image/fetch/$s_!5DdG!,w_848,c_limit,f_webp,q_auto:good,fl_progressive:steep/https%3A%2F%2Fsubstack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fpublic%2Fimages%2F8acd928f-0eff-471c-9a7e-c60ce7238b04_3024x4032.heic 848w, https://substackcdn.com/image/fetch/$s_!5DdG!,w_1272,c_limit,f_webp,q_auto:good,fl_progressive:steep/https%3A%2F%2Fsubstack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fpublic%2Fimages%2F8acd928f-0eff-471c-9a7e-c60ce7238b04_3024x4032.heic 1272w, https://substackcdn.com/image/fetch/$s_!5DdG!,w_1456,c_limit,f_webp,q_auto:good,fl_progressive:steep/https%3A%2F%2Fsubstack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fpublic%2Fimages%2F8acd928f-0eff-471c-9a7e-c60ce7238b04_3024x4032.heic 1456w" sizes="100vw"><img src="https://substackcdn.com/image/fetch/$s_!5DdG!,w_1456,c_limit,f_auto,q_auto:good,fl_progressive:steep/https%3A%2F%2Fsubstack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fpublic%2Fimages%2F8acd928f-0eff-471c-9a7e-c60ce7238b04_3024x4032.heic" width="1456" height="1941" data-attrs="{&quot;src&quot;:&quot;https://substack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com/public/images/8acd928f-0eff-471c-9a7e-c60ce7238b04_3024x4032.heic&quot;,&quot;srcNoWatermark&quot;:null,&quot;fullscreen&quot;:null,&quot;imageSize&quot;:null,&quot;height&quot;:1941,&quot;width&quot;:1456,&quot;resizeWidth&quot;:null,&quot;bytes&quot;:804569,&quot;alt&quot;:null,&quot;title&quot;:null,&quot;type&quot;:&quot;image/heic&quot;,&quot;href&quot;:null,&quot;belowTheFold&quot;:true,&quot;topImage&quot;:false,&quot;internalRedirect&quot;:&quot;https://scalingjudgment.substack.com/i/196655757?img=https%3A%2F%2Fsubstack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fpublic%2Fimages%2F8acd928f-0eff-471c-9a7e-c60ce7238b04_3024x4032.heic&quot;,&quot;isProcessing&quot;:false,&quot;align&quot;:null,&quot;offset&quot;:false}" class="sizing-normal" alt="" srcset="https://substackcdn.com/image/fetch/$s_!5DdG!,w_424,c_limit,f_auto,q_auto:good,fl_progressive:steep/https%3A%2F%2Fsubstack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fpublic%2Fimages%2F8acd928f-0eff-471c-9a7e-c60ce7238b04_3024x4032.heic 424w, https://substackcdn.com/image/fetch/$s_!5DdG!,w_848,c_limit,f_auto,q_auto:good,fl_progressive:steep/https%3A%2F%2Fsubstack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fpublic%2Fimages%2F8acd928f-0eff-471c-9a7e-c60ce7238b04_3024x4032.heic 848w, https://substackcdn.com/image/fetch/$s_!5DdG!,w_1272,c_limit,f_auto,q_auto:good,fl_progressive:steep/https%3A%2F%2Fsubstack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fpublic%2Fimages%2F8acd928f-0eff-471c-9a7e-c60ce7238b04_3024x4032.heic 1272w, https://substackcdn.com/image/fetch/$s_!5DdG!,w_1456,c_limit,f_auto,q_auto:good,fl_progressive:steep/https%3A%2F%2Fsubstack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fpublic%2Fimages%2F8acd928f-0eff-471c-9a7e-c60ce7238b04_3024x4032.heic 1456w" sizes="100vw" loading="lazy"></picture><div class="image-link-expand"><div class="pencraft pc-display-flex pc-gap-8 pc-reset"><button tabindex="0" type="button" class="pencraft pc-reset pencraft icon-container restack-image"><svg role="img" width="20" height="20" viewBox="0 0 20 20" fill="none" stroke-width="1.5" stroke="var(--color-fg-primary)" stroke-linecap="round" stroke-linejoin="round" xmlns="http://www.w3.org/2000/svg"><g><title></title><path d="M2.53001 7.81595C3.49179 4.73911 6.43281 2.5 9.91173 2.5C13.1684 2.5 15.9537 4.46214 17.0852 7.23684L17.6179 8.67647M17.6179 8.67647L18.5002 4.26471M17.6179 8.67647L13.6473 6.91176M17.4995 12.1841C16.5378 15.2609 13.5967 17.5 10.1178 17.5C6.86118 17.5 4.07589 15.5379 2.94432 12.7632L2.41165 11.3235M2.41165 11.3235L1.5293 15.7353M2.41165 11.3235L6.38224 13.0882"></path></g></svg></button><button tabindex="0" type="button" class="pencraft pc-reset pencraft icon-container view-image"><svg xmlns="http://www.w3.org/2000/svg" width="20" height="20" viewBox="0 0 24 24" fill="none" stroke="currentColor" stroke-width="2" stroke-linecap="round" stroke-linejoin="round" class="lucide lucide-maximize2 lucide-maximize-2"><polyline points="15 3 21 3 21 9"></polyline><polyline points="9 21 3 21 3 15"></polyline><line x1="21" x2="14" y1="3" y2="10"></line><line x1="3" x2="10" y1="21" y2="14"></line></svg></button></div></div></div></a><figcaption class="image-caption">Lagos, the most beautiful place on earth</figcaption></figure></div><p></p><p>This time around, I had a team to support me. My realtor hooked me up with a lawyer specialised in real estate, and a mortgage broker. Remember when I wrote a few paragraphs ago that opening a bank account was an absolute nightmare? Well, the mortgage broker sorted everything for me. Build your dream team, don&#8217;t try to go DIY on everything, especially in a foreign country. It is really worth the extra money.</p><p>Next I had to find a property manager. Spoke to a few, eventually decided for a property manager who was working for Holidu. For me it was important to be able to use our software as I wanted to get the full user experience.</p><p>We are now in year 4. How did things go?</p><p>The first year was not great in terms of revenue. I mispriced the rental and within a few days I was fully booked in summer. Then the property manager called me saying that we were losing money in the low season bookings because of cleaning and laundry costs. I immediately reviewed my prices, the damage was done though. At the same time, the first year is all about getting the first bookings and reviews. Once you have done that, you can increase your prices.</p><p>I remember looking at my competitors back then. There was this tiny place in the centre of Lagos that had insane reviews and was booked pretty much 365 days a year. There was a little lesson in there. Make your place unique. </p><p>Year two was definitely much better and eventually in year three I broke even. </p><p>Property prices have soared in the past 4 years in Lagos and basically at the moment I have a property paying for itself and appreciating in the meantime. </p><p>Not too shabby.</p><p>So, dear friend, after reading all of this blurb, should you invest in a short term rental in Portugal?</p><p>It depends.</p><p>Something I have learned the hard way is that investing is a risky business and you want to minimise the chances of losing your shirt. One of the most common, and often not listened to, advice is to invest where you have an edge. </p><p>Thanks to my work at Holidu, I understand vacation rentals better than most people. I mean, I spend most of my waking time thinking about driving revenue to properties across Europe and that&#8217;s where my edge is.</p><p>Would I do it again?</p><p>Only if the right deal came along. The reality is that the Algarve market has changed since 2022 and it is harder to drive returns from a vacation rental given the higher property prices and mortgage costs. Demand is still strong, but guests are increasingly price sensitive. Furthermore, there has been an increase in restrictions on short-term rentals and I keep hearing horror stories about people stuck in the process to get the license for short-term rentals. Finally, taxes have also increased for non-resident owners. </p><p>This doesn&#8217;t mean that the opportunity is gone. It has just moved. Inland Algarve, thirty to forty minutes from the coast, can still make sense but I would look for a very unique property. </p><p>At the same time, something I have learned is that there are always deals if you are willing to put in the work, be patient, and find them. Building relationships with local realtors can help find deals before they get to the market. There are also a lot of ugly ducklings, apartments or houses that need some love but could still make a good return.</p><p>The edge argument still stands though. Don&#8217;t do this without doing your due diligence and understanding the market from inside. Luck and patience matter, but they work better when you know what you are looking for.</p><p>Thanks for reading,</p><p>Sayonara</p>]]></content:encoded></item><item><title><![CDATA[Boring and Predictable]]></title><description><![CDATA[Would you rather build, operate or invest in a company that is boring and predictable or one that is capable of great heights and equally great lows?]]></description><link>https://www.scalingjudgment.co/p/boring-and-predictable</link><guid isPermaLink="false">https://www.scalingjudgment.co/p/boring-and-predictable</guid><dc:creator><![CDATA[Alistair Toffoli]]></dc:creator><pubDate>Wed, 22 Apr 2026 19:48:07 GMT</pubDate><content:encoded><![CDATA[<p>Would you rather build, operate or invest in a company that is boring and predictable or one that is capable of great heights and equally great lows?</p><p>There is no right or wrong answer. It depends on who you are and your operating or investing style, but personally I would pick a boring and predictable business any day. Boring and predictable make a business sustainable over the long run, and being able to play the long game is what builds great organisation.</p><p>In my last post, I briefly introduced a system that makes success inevitable in sales organisations. In the aftermath of that post, I have started thinking where else can this system or framework live because while it is not catchy, it certainly makes sense. </p><p>In reality, the more I look at it, the more it feels like a simple way to understand any company. If a company operates with this system, chances are they could be a great business to work with or invest in.</p><p>With this in mind, I thought to deep dive in each of the four components of this framework.</p><p><strong>Talent</strong> </p><p>I swear, I will write a post only on Talent because that&#8217;s the most important thing you should focus on when building a scalable organisation. Heck, if you have talent, which roughly translates to having the right people in the right places in your organisation, it is not that the rest doesn&#8217;t matter, but great talent can make it happen.</p><p>If you want to understand a company, talent can be two things. Management (including founders), and the rest of the organisation. Getting inside information on the rest of the organisation is pretty difficult, but management can be more accessible. Lately I was researching a public company, typed the name on Spotify, and found a few podcasts with the founder. It is not the same as being in the same room, but can provide insights on the way the founder thinks. Another way to gain insights on talent and culture (see below), is to review LinkedIn and Glassdoor. </p><p><strong>Pipeline</strong></p><p>Pipeline is how the company is attracting new customers. Depending on the size and stage of the company, Pipeline can be different and can be built in many different ways:</p><ul><li><p>paid online marketing (search, social, display)</p></li><li><p>paid offline marketing</p></li><li><p>inbound marketing (SEO, branding)</p></li><li><p>sales outreach</p></li><li><p>network: referrals, partnerships, affiliates</p></li></ul><p>Pipeline is also a way to build a moat:  a brand that people love, a sales outreach machine, a network of partners, a strong online presence are hard to build from scratch. Ideally having a combination of few of the above makes the Pipeline defensible.</p><p><strong>Execution</strong> </p><p>It&#8217;s all about Execution. Execution is how an organisation translates an idea into a decision, and a decision into reality. One can have a strong Pipeline but if Execution falters, you are left with nothing. Execution is not just a commercial trait, but it is something that touches several layers of the organisation. From shipping new products, to marketing, sales, customer success, retention.</p><p>Execution is not about getting things done, but it is getting things done efficiently. It is about choosing the right set of priorities. But how do you evaluate Execution from the outside?</p><p>Consistent financial performance is one of the strongest external signals of execution. Any company can have a great quarter, but a company that delivers predictable results over multiple years is telling something about how they operate. Plenty of metrics one could obsess with, I particularly like &#8220;Return on invested capital&#8221;. A company with persistently high ROIC is converting every euro of capital into profit efficiently, year after year. </p><p>For early stage companies, look at unit economics instead. LTV:CAC ratio and payback period tell you the same thing ROIC tells you about a mature business: does this company know how to create more value than it consumes?</p><p><strong>Standard of Excellence</strong> </p><p>Standards of Excellence is another name for Culture. Culture is what people do when the boss is not in the room. </p><p>Every organisation has values. Most have them on a wall, or in a deck. Fewer have them in their decisions, especially when a shortcut is available or times are tough, or nobody is watching. To some extent, the gap between stated values and actual behaviour is an organisation&#8217;s culture.</p><p>It is also the hardest of the four components to evaluate from the outside, and unfortunately often you discover it when it is too late. Boeing comes to mind. Great company, until the culture broke. </p><p>Without waiting for a PR crisis, one can get a glimpse of the culture by looking at how leadership communicates publicly and what they do. Are they consistent with what they say? Do they take responsibility when things go wrong or look for excuses? Do they talk about people or only their product? How do they treat their people when times are tough? </p><p>LinkedIn and Glassdoor can also help. Are people staying for years or constantly moving on? Patterns in tenure and reviews tell you more than any single data point.</p><p>Finally, what is a company saying no to? What a company publicly associates itself with &#8212; the causes it champions, the positions it takes, the things it stays silent on &#8212; reveals values that no mission statement ever will.</p><p>A company where standards hold consistently doesn&#8217;t make the news. It is probably too boring and predictable. Which is exactly why you should look into it.</p>]]></content:encoded></item><item><title><![CDATA[Making Success Inevitable]]></title><description><![CDATA[Making success inevitable.]]></description><link>https://www.scalingjudgment.co/p/making-success-inevitable</link><guid isPermaLink="false">https://www.scalingjudgment.co/p/making-success-inevitable</guid><dc:creator><![CDATA[Alistair Toffoli]]></dc:creator><pubDate>Thu, 26 Mar 2026 22:34:39 GMT</pubDate><content:encoded><![CDATA[<p>Making success inevitable. It has become a personal mantra.</p><p>What fascinates me about this idea is the gap between how much our society obsesses over success, and yet, how rarely it actually appears. There are endless books, podcasts, and frameworks promising to unlock it. Yet truly successful organisations, and truly successful individuals, remain surprisingly rare.</p><p>In the most successful organisations, in sports and in business alike, winning rarely happens by chance. It comes from building a system that makes success inevitable.</p><div><hr></div><p>Years ago, when I was running the Italian market, I was constantly looking for stories and role models to inspire my teams to go above and beyond. Real Madrid was one of my favourite examples. </p><p>Love them or hate them, it&#8217;s a club that is built to win.</p><p>Some people argue that Real Madrid wins simply because they have money and buy the best players. That may have been true at some point. But there are plenty of clubs today that spend enormous amounts of money on talent.</p><p> There is only one Real Madrid.</p><p>The difference is culture. At Real Madrid, winning is the minimum expectation, especially in the Champions League. If you wear the Real Madrid &#8220;camiseta blanca&#8221;, you play to win. Anything short of it feels like a disappointment.</p><p>Do they win every game or competition? Of course not. They have off years like any other club. But as an organisation, they bounce back remarkably fast.</p><p>That winning culture, combined with relentless investment in the best talent and the infrastructure to support it, has produced by far the most successful football club in the world.</p><p>Many other teams have money. Nobody has the wins.</p><p>Real Madrid has a system.</p><div><hr></div><p>That idea stuck with me.</p><p>The best organisations don&#8217;t rely only on motivation, super stars, or short bursts of effort. They build systems that consistently, and predictably, produce results.</p><p>The same principle applies to commercial teams.</p><p>Success in sales, especially at scale, cannot depend on super talented individuals, or last minute sprints. It should be the natural outcome of how the organisation operates every single day.</p><p>Over time, I&#8217;ve come to believe that building systems that produce predictable outcomes is the real job of sales leadership.</p><p>In my experience, these systems rest on four pillars:</p><ul><li><p><strong>Talent</strong></p></li><li><p><strong>Pipeline</strong></p></li><li><p><strong>Execution</strong></p></li><li><p><strong>Standard of Performance</strong></p></li></ul><p>When these four elements are working well together, sales results become far more predictable.</p><p>Talent is self-explanatory: you need great people in the right roles. I&#8217;ll cover it in a future post, as it deserves its own space. </p><p>For now, let&#8217;s start with the foundation of sales: pipeline.</p><div><hr></div><p>Early in my career, one of my mentors used to say something that sounded almost too simple:</p><p><em>The secret of sales is talking to a lot of people, and finding those that have a problem you can solve.</em></p><p>Sure, skills certainly matter. But even the most talented salesperson cannot close deals that don&#8217;t exist.</p><p>Without pipeline, there is nothing to execute on.</p><p>You need to have deals in the pipeline. There is no other way around it. How do you get deals? A pipeline doesn&#8217;t happen by accident. It is the result of consistent, deliberate activity.</p><p>Talking to people is the starting point, but strong organisations take it a step further. They build systems to generate opportunities for their sales force: outbound, inbound, partnerships, events, and referrals.</p><p>The exact channels depend on your business and growth phase you are in, but the principle is the same: pipeline creation must be intentional and repeatable.</p><div><hr></div><p>Once pipeline is in place, execution becomes the next critical system.</p><p><strong>Execution is where opportunities turn into revenue</strong>. </p><p>At its essence, execution has a strong quantitative component. You take your yearly goal, and break it into quarters, months, weeks, and even daily activities, and you make it happen.</p><p>Every sales leader, and every sales person, should understand their numbers:</p><ul><li><p>how many calls are needed to get a meeting</p></li><li><p>how many meetings convert into opportunities</p></li><li><p>how many opportunities turn into closed deals</p></li></ul><p>Different lead sources behave differently. Cold outreach is typically the hardest: you need a high volume of activity to generate results.<br>Inbound leads convert more easily because there is already intent.<br>Referrals tend to be the most efficient, as trust is built in from the start.</p><p>The goal is not just to work harder, but to continuously improve efficiency across these channels.</p><p>Execution, however, is not just about numbers.<br>It is about how consistently those numbers are achieved. This is where the standard of performance comes in.</p><div><hr></div><p>Standards of performance are not targets. They are expectations.</p><p>They define how the work gets done &#8212; every call, every meeting, every follow-up.</p><p>This is no different from Real Madrid stepping onto the pitch expecting to win. That expectation shapes how they prepare, how they play, and how they respond under pressure.</p><p>In sales, standards of performance show up in the details:</p><ul><li><p>how consistently reps hit their daily activity target</p></li><li><p>how well prepared reps are for calls</p></li><li><p>how consistently they follow up</p></li><li><p>how disciplined they are in managing their pipeline</p></li><li><p>how rigorously deals are qualified</p></li></ul><p>These things may seem small, but they compound over time.</p><p>When standards are high and consistently applied, average performance disappears. Excellence becomes the norm.</p><div><hr></div><p>When the right people are in place, when the pipeline is consistently filled,<br>and when execution happens according to a clear standard of performance, results stop being unpredictable.</p><p>They become a natural outcome of how the organisation operates. </p><p>This is when success starts to feel inevitable.</p><p>So build the system.</p>]]></content:encoded></item><item><title><![CDATA[The Most Dangerous Form of Action]]></title><description><![CDATA[I've watched this pattern destroy quarterly results.]]></description><link>https://www.scalingjudgment.co/p/the-most-dangerous-form-of-action</link><guid isPermaLink="false">https://www.scalingjudgment.co/p/the-most-dangerous-form-of-action</guid><dc:creator><![CDATA[Alistair Toffoli]]></dc:creator><pubDate>Tue, 10 Feb 2026 19:42:41 GMT</pubDate><content:encoded><![CDATA[<p>I've watched this pattern destroy quarterly results. Month one: sales rep misses target, has a good excuse, you let it slide. Month two, closer but still a miss. Month three, more meetings but no closed deals. Just like that, your quarter is gone. I've seen this happen with smart, experienced managers who convince themselves they're being patient when they're really just living in denial. </p><p>I was there myself. The problem wasn't that I was patient. The problem was I had no thesis to be patient <em>about</em>. I was being a rabbit.</p><div class="subscription-widget-wrap-editor" data-attrs="{&quot;url&quot;:&quot;https://www.scalingjudgment.co/subscribe?&quot;,&quot;text&quot;:&quot;Subscribe&quot;,&quot;language&quot;:&quot;en&quot;}" data-component-name="SubscribeWidgetToDOM"><div class="subscription-widget show-subscribe"><div class="preamble"><p class="cta-caption">Thanks for reading Scaling Judgment! Subscribe for free to receive new posts and support my work.</p></div><form class="subscription-widget-subscribe"><input type="email" class="email-input" name="email" placeholder="Type your email&#8230;" tabindex="-1"><input type="submit" class="button primary" value="Subscribe"><div class="fake-input-wrapper"><div class="fake-input"></div><div class="fake-button"></div></div></form></div></div><p>When I started managing larger teams, while getting deeper into my role and obsessing over execution, I picked up a short book called &#8220;The Art of Execution&#8221; by Lee Freeman-Shor. It's mainly about investing. I was getting into that at the same time. The writer is an investment manager observing his top-performing fund managers and categorizing how they handle winning and losing positions. But what I discovered was something far more useful: a framework for understanding why smart people make terrible decisions when faced with deteriorating situations.</p><p>What I didn't expect was how directly this investing framework would transform my approach to operational leadership. The insight that changed everything wasn't about markets. It was about the psychology of doing nothing.</p><div><hr></div><p><strong>The Five Archetypes of Execution</strong></p><p>Freeman-Shor studied how elite investors, people who should know better, responded when their positions started losing value. What he found wasn&#8217;t a spectrum of competence. It was a taxonomy of fear, discipline, and conviction. Five distinct patterns emerged, and only two of them consistently made money.</p><p>The framework splits into two scenarios: how you handle what&#8217;s failing, and how you handle what&#8217;s working. Both reveal more about your judgment than you&#8217;d like to admit.</p><p><strong>When Things Go Wrong: Three Ways to Lose</strong></p><p><strong>The Rabbits</strong> freeze. When a position drops 10%, they hold. At 20%, they hold. At 30%, they&#8217;re still holding, paralyzed by the hope that patience will be rewarded. The math works against them: a 20% loss requires a 25% gain just to break even. A 50% loss needs a 100% surge. Rabbits tell themselves they&#8217;re being rational, long-term thinkers. They&#8217;re actually just afraid to admit they were wrong.</p><p>In business, rabbit behavior is everywhere. The struggling market that keeps getting &#8220;one more quarter.&#8221; The underperforming channel that&#8217;s been &#8220;about to turn around&#8221; for six months. The process everyone knows is broken but no one wants to redesign. That sales rep. Rabbits don&#8217;t lack intelligence&#8212;they lack the courage to cut their losses.</p><p><strong>The Assassins</strong> act fast. When a position drops 20%, they sell. No emotion, no second-guessing, no hoping for a rebound. They limit the damage and redeploy capital elsewhere. They miss some recoveries, sure. But they also avoid catastrophic losses, and they free up resources to chase better opportunities.</p><p>In organizations, Assassins are the leaders who kill projects early when the data turns negative. Who restructure teams at the first sign of dysfunction. Who pivot strategies the moment market signals shift. They&#8217;re not always right, but they&#8217;re never stuck.</p><p><strong>The Hunters</strong> do something counterintuitive: when a position drops, they buy more. But not recklessly&#8212;they only double down when their original thesis still holds, when the fundamentals haven&#8217;t changed, when they have genuine conviction that the market is wrong. It&#8217;s disciplined contrarianism. High risk, high reward, and it requires the guts to buy when everyone else is selling.</p><p>This is the hardest archetype to translate to operations. Doubling down on a failing initiative feels insane. But sometimes the right move is to increase investment in something that&#8217;s struggling, not because you&#8217;re hoping it improves, but because you have specific evidence that the underlying bet remains sound. The difference between a Rabbit and a Hunter isn&#8217;t optimism. It&#8217;s conviction based on evidence. About a year ago, we had a product feature nobody wanted to touch, let alone sell to customers. I realized that with targeted improvements and internal repositioning, this feature could generate significant revenue. I faced resistance from my team and stakeholders, but we executed, and it paid off.</p><p><strong>When Things Go Right: Two Ways to Win</strong></p><p><strong>The Raiders</strong> sell at the first sign of profit. Their position is up 15%? They&#8217;re out. They make money, but they never capture the full potential of their best ideas. They&#8217;re Assassins in a bull market&#8212;disciplined, but short-sighted.</p><p>In business, Raiders are leaders who kill successful initiatives too early because they&#8217;re chasing the next shiny opportunity. Who reorganize teams that are finally hitting their stride. Who declare victory and move on right when momentum is building.</p><p><strong>The Connoisseurs</strong> hold concentrated positions for years. They own few bets, but they own them deeply. They sell sparingly, only when the fundamental thesis changes. They&#8217;re Buffett and Munger&#8212;patient, convicted, relentlessly focused on a handful of high-conviction ideas.</p><p>Great operators are Connoisseurs. They identify what actually matters, commit resources, and stay committed through the noise. They don&#8217;t confuse activity with progress. They don&#8217;t diversify their attention into mediocrity.</p><div><hr></div><p><strong>The Hardest Question</strong></p><p>The real challenge isn&#8217;t understanding these archetypes. It&#8217;s knowing which one to be in any given moment.</p><p>Because here&#8217;s what makes execution so difficult: Sometimes patience is wisdom, and sometimes it&#8217;s cowardice. Sometimes cutting losses is prudent, and sometimes it&#8217;s panic. Sometimes doubling down is conviction, and sometimes it&#8217;s delusion.</p><p>The difference isn&#8217;t in the action itself. It&#8217;s in the question you ask before you act: <strong>Has my thesis changed?</strong></p><p>When that sales rep kept missing targets, the problem was simple: I had no thesis. I should have had one&#8212;either they needed intensive coaching immediately, or they weren't the right fit. Instead, I was just hoping things would improve.</p><p>When I doubled down on that unpopular product feature, I had a specific thesis: the feature itself was sound, but positioning and internal buy-in were fixable problems. The pushback I got wasn&#8217;t evidence my thesis was wrong. It was evidence I needed to execute harder on changing perception.</p><p>The Connoisseurs that Freeman-Shor studied didn&#8217;t succeed because they were patient. They succeeded because they had conviction in a well-reasoned thesis and the discipline to re-evaluate it constantly.</p><p><strong>What This Means in Practice</strong></p><p>When something&#8217;s failing, force yourself to articulate: What would need to be true for this to work? Is it still true?</p><p>If yes, you should be a Hunter. Double down with conviction.</p><p>If no, you should be an Assassin. Cut losses and redeploy.</p><p>The only unacceptable answer is &#8220;I don&#8217;t know, let&#8217;s wait and see.&#8221; That&#8217;s being a Rabbit.</p><p>I&#8217;ve started applying this to both my own investing and my organisation. At the start of this year, I killed positions I&#8217;d been holding onto out of hope, not conviction. I consolidated into 4-6 companies where I have genuine thesis-driven belief. My new rule: if a position drops and the thesis still holds, I buy more. </p><p>The same discipline applies to operations. When a channel underperforms, when a hire struggles, when an initiative stalls, I ask the thesis question. And I act based on the answer, not based on comfort or hope.</p><p>Because in the end, inaction isn&#8217;t the absence of a decision. It&#8217;s a decision to let circumstances decide for you.</p><p>And that&#8217;s the most dangerous form of action there is.</p><p> </p><p></p><p></p><div class="subscription-widget-wrap-editor" data-attrs="{&quot;url&quot;:&quot;https://www.scalingjudgment.co/subscribe?&quot;,&quot;text&quot;:&quot;Subscribe&quot;,&quot;language&quot;:&quot;en&quot;}" data-component-name="SubscribeWidgetToDOM"><div class="subscription-widget show-subscribe"><div class="preamble"><p class="cta-caption">Thanks for reading Scaling Judgment! Subscribe for free to receive new posts and support my work.</p></div><form class="subscription-widget-subscribe"><input type="email" class="email-input" name="email" placeholder="Type your email&#8230;" tabindex="-1"><input type="submit" class="button primary" value="Subscribe"><div class="fake-input-wrapper"><div class="fake-input"></div><div class="fake-button"></div></div></form></div></div>]]></content:encoded></item></channel></rss>